Projekt

Fraunhofer-Institut für
System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

EVA-TREN - Improved Decision-Aid Methods and Tools to Support Evaluation of Investments for Transport and Energy Networks in Europe

Objectives and structure

EVA TREN is a research project supported by the European Commission and developed within the VI Framework Programme. The main objectives of the project are: 

  • reviewing the ex ante assessment approaches for large infrastructure projects;
  • selecting the best practices;
  • improving the assessment methodologies for the ex-ante evaluation through the ex post evaluation.
EVA TREN project aims at improving the ex ante appraisal practices for the assessment of large Energy and Transport infrastructures projects through the ex post analysis of several case studies. Furthermore the project will also develop a document containing evaluation guidelines on the topic.

The final output of the project will be twofold. On one side the standardisation of the ex post evaluation methodologies. On the other side it will carry out a matching exercise for case studies between ex-ante and ex-post analyses, in order to improve assessment procedures. The question to which the EVA TREN project is expected to answer is extremely relevant and regards the effectiveness of the current assessment tools and practices compared with the problem complexity to deal with. As a matter of fact the evaluation tools should be planning instruments useful to establish a dialogue with the other project phases and, at the same time, to manage the several dimension of the policy decision support.

The adopted methodology could be summed up as follows:

  • identification of the most critical aspect concerning the implementation of large infrastructure projects;
  • supporting the developments of tools, indicators and operational parameters for the assessment of sustainable transport and energy network;
  • suggesting good practices to the policy makers.

All these activities, which would be a sound theoretical improvement, will be supported by the available scientific literature but above all by a deep analysis and re-examination of the eleven case studies. These have been selected both according to their Community dimension relevance and to their work advancement stage, which in some case reached up the end.

ISI role in the project

Transport infrastructure investments remain for several decades, and sometimes even for centuries. During this enormous time span political, economic, social and environmental conditions are subject to change and thus planning assumptions may prove false during the projects’ life span. Moreover, transport investments themselves trigger peoples’ and companies’ behaviour and therefore play an active role in the dynamics of the system. This role may be desirable in terms of fostering economic development and innovation, but also risks to put further loads on the social well-being by inducing additional traffic with all its harmful consequences. The Fraunhofer-Institute for Systems and Innovation (ISI) will contribute its wide-spread experience in the field of long-term system assessment in order to show ways for a substantial improvement of assessment methods.

In particular, big projects take a considerable impact on economic development, employment and the environment. Analyses of worldwide investment projects clearly show that project plans tend to under-estimate costs and over-estimate benefits. Among the various case studies investigated by the EVA-TREN project, a striking example for the divergence of initial plans and actual development is the Baltic Sea Motorway (A20) from Luebeck in northern Germany through the new federal state of Mecklenburg Western-Pommerania to Stetin at the German-Polish border. Due to several reasons the projected positive impact of this truly trans-European transport project are lacking. The purposes are investigated by Fraunhofer-ISI in a dedicated case study.

Status

Ongoing project

Client

European Commission DG TREN

Partners

  • TRT - Trasporti e Territorio
  • IWW - Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung
  • ISI - Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research
  • ipts - Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
  • EPFL - Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Chaire Logistique, Economie, Management
  • Csil Milano - Centro Studi Industria Leggera
  • Nestear - Transport en Europe, Application Recherche
  • IIP - Institute for Industrial Production, University of Karlsruhe

Website